Update: 1-20-2010

Mr. Butler was kind enough to clarify his prespective on the difference between Silver and Gold.

Here’s what he had to  say…

Gold had a mini-rally of $5 during yesterday’s trading, but overnight has sold off $9…

I want to make something perfectly clear, that I’ve talked about before regarding Gold… When I talk about Gold, I’m also talking about Silver… I just don’t want to have to type Gold and Silver every time I’m talking about the precious metals… Silver is another store of wealth… In the December Currency Capitalist, I talked about giving the gift of Gold, and teaching whomever you gift it to, the lessons of wealth building… When my older kids were youngsters, I bought them Silver coins, for I could not afford anything else then… Those Silver coins have proved the point of providing a store of wealth, as they have never gone to zero, and have gained in value over the years!

Thanks Chuck!!

*******************************

What can I say?

I nearly fell out my seat the morning when I read Chuck Butler’s, “Daily Pfennig” where, in a mere instant, he had served up  – and efficiently denied, my beloved silver its proper place in the limelight…

Nevertheless, bullishness manifests in mysterious ways, and (perhaps) we should be thankful for the fact that silver is overlooked and misunderstood by the likes of many – and especially people who (we think) ought to know better.

That is part of my rationalization for sticking with the Pfennig.

The other part is that I just like Chuck.

And, you probably will too.

So why would a silver coin bug like yours truly be so interested in this quick and daily synopsis of currency news?

Here’s why:

Currency traders are technical, but the world is so big that they can never take their eye off the fundamentals.

No matter what, the fundamentals always catch up with the markets.  And, you don’t get much more fundamental than silver.

In addition, the heavy technical aspect to currency markets lends itself to being a good place for getting some training in the language of the markets. You can then apply the lessons to other markets.

And lastly, currency trading is ultimately about money trading and silver has always been money…

Oh yeah, I almost forgot — Not anymore, according to Mr. Butler.

More on that in a  moment.

First a brief overview about the Daily Pfennig and Chuck Butler:

This is a free and fun 10 minute read without much at all in the way of direct ads –

Mr. Butler is a great writer. Funny, friendly, and easy to follow – yet full of vinegar and controversy.

The Pfennig always starts with a personal note to warm up and ends that way as well.

He probably takes some heat for this, but I’ll bet a few silver coins that this is one of the main reasons for his success and thousands of loyal readers.

Essentially, the Pfennig (a penny for your thoughts) was designed to give folks on the trading desk an early insight and flavor before the markets open.

It ends up being a really good way to get a quick re-cap of the news…with the focus on world currencies or the macro-perspective.

Why does a silver investor need this?

Well, us little guys always need to stay a step ahead.  So few seem to get it that we can never be too sure that when discussing gold — an analyst also means silver. You need to be careful in making this assumption as I believe the real gold analysts understand the distinction between the two precious metals.

Currencies are important for a silver investor because Silver is/was  currency.

And I know that “currency folks” are mainly talking about fiat currencies, but that is actually the point. In fact, most currency analysts put gold in the currency category, albeit with super-natural status.

Mr. Butler recently (and rightly) took up reading the Creature From Jekyll Island (another time I almost fell out of my seat) and has since been referring the Fed as the Cartel. You GATA love that. Another huge reason to follow him, regardless of my silver gripe.

Anyway.

Understanding how currencies are traded, printed, and manipulated provides insight into the daily practices of centralized monetary policy and part of that mission is to bash confidence in real money.

But, understanding the value of international currencies requires a similar analysis to that which you would apply to a company stock or perhaps a commodity — like silver.

But in case you thought I forgot — silver is also money!

Mr. Butler is a big deal in the FOREX world. Formally of Mark Twain Bank, he is now president of EverBank in St. Louis and if I ever hit really big, I’ll probably open up one of their “market safe” CD’s. (That’s not necessarily a plug, by the way).

Mr. Butler is a character. Like an old friend from the neighborhood who may invoke rock-and-roll song lyrics throughout the middle of an important rant or upon delivering these missives, he is very likable and probably would prefer you call him Chuck.

Nevertheless, he disappointed me on silver.

In a recent Pfennig,

“As I said earlier, Gold reached $1,218 yesterday… Kristin mentioned to me that Silver has risen 69% this year, but all everyone ever talks about is Gold, and wanted to know why…

Well… Silver is another excellent choice of a store of wealth… But, it’s just not Gold! There are a number of reasons for this, but the most compelling one is that Gold used to be money, and to many, it is considered to be the only real currency… The practical reason is the fact that if you wanted to carry Gold in your pocket, two coins, worth $2,400 would be just fine… But if you wanted to put $2,400 worth of Silver in your pocket, you would need a lot of people’s pockets to help you carry it!”

At least he said “excellent choice as a store of wealth”.

And no, it’s not gold — it’s more important than gold. Its everywhere and soon silver will be “no where”.

And there is already less silver than gold.  Maybe he can have Kristin do a little project on silver supply.

From the keys under Mr. Butler’s (self-proclaimed) “little fat fingers”, to the refrigerator, washing machine, IPhone, cell phone, silver is in a much of the stuff we use on a daily basis in the industrialized world.

This also includes airplanes, hospitals, medicines, and plastics!

I know you can’t eat it, but there are small amounts of silver in all this stuff that no one thinks about and totally takes for granted – like all the electrical panel switches in your house that magically work every time you flip the switch.

Why do you think central banks got rid of their silver? They sold it to fuel all of these nice industries.

But don’t forget about the strategic uses- the military needs silver badly in everything from batteries to the lubrication on the jet-engine ball-bearings.

It’s always about the ball-bearings.

I’m not so sure that silver has been actually discontinued as “money” – and certainly not because central banks don’t keep it any longer. Are we to assume that because the The Bank Cartel (by Treasury proxy) sold it — that it is no longer money?

It’s funny that all the silver I own was either circulated as money, looks like money, and feels like money. It says in the US Constitution that silver is money. And I can go sell some at the coin shop and get some paper money to buy stuff with…

And finally we come to the practicality of silver versus gold.

I like traveling light as much as anyone, but $2,400 of silver when Mr. Butler dropped this on (me) his readers was about 6 rolls-worth of silver rounds  – or about 10 pounds.

I’m not trying to brag, but on more than a few occasions, I’ve carried this much silver home in the back-pack that I was also carrying my daughter (25 pounds) in — on my way back from the coin shop! And that was for fun.

Maybe I’m not the average reader, but I’ll bet more than a few Pfennig readers could handle 10 pounds of silver in a paper bag to the car.

It’s good exercise besides.

Did I mention that silver is more rare than gold?

Okay, you get the picture. I could go on and on and on.

I’ll send this over to Mr. Butler. Maybe he’ll share this with his readers, creating a new rush for physical silver that finally pushes the already tight physical market over the edge, sending all the shorts running for the hills and we’ll get this adjustment back to fundamentals over with. And then I can put some into one of those currency accounts — maybe have Mr. Butler pick one for me…..

And of course, I’m not mad. I still love Chuck!

Even though this has been  surreal to say the least.

To almost see “my team” in the spotlight.

And that moment, like a slow motion train-wreck, where silver was lifted it up so high for all those many thousands of readers to see, just long enough for it to be “destroyed” as a credible, and for once, untarnished poor-man’s asset.

The horror!

I’ll keep reading Pfennig (and so should you), pretending that when Mr. Butler brings up gold -that he is also talking about silver — sort of — even if he doesn’t know it.

I’m used to it.

It’s the way the world works.

In the meantime, here’s a more formal take (and shameless plug) about the value of silver and gold.

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Silver and Gold might be money, but they ain’t traded on the Forex.

I suppose this is part of why Chuck Butler’s Daily Pfennig has become a part of my daily routine.

Butler recently quoted David Galland on buying Gold… Here’s David…

“Buy gold. Unless and until there is an angry upwelling of popular discontent at the growing size of government – and it has to be far more substantive than just a few vocal talk radio jocks, or even 100,000 or so people peacefully gathering on the Mall in Washington DC – the government will continue to grow, or even just keep running at current levels, which means the destruction of the dollar. Many tangible assets will do well, but their intrinsic value as money means gold (and silver) will do best.”

That would have been enough for me, but as it turns out, I had already come to know David Galland, who also turns out to be a fan of one of my favorite books, THE FOURTH TURNING, AN AMERICAN PROPHECY, by Neil Howe and the late William Strauss.

More on this in a minute…

Last week I happened to be listening to a radio interview with Mr. Gold, Jim Sinclair of JSMineSet (previously reviewed by me).

Sinclair was talking about his father, who worked with the legendary trader, Jesse Livermore.

(It turns out a good day-trading friend of mine had recently discovered Livermore, which was the first I’d heard of them)

Anyway, Sinclair brought up a Livermore axiom that really stuck with me and I’ve been thinking about it ever since.

Livermore said that the most important thing when trading is to:

“establish and commit to a position, then use the technicals to support or improve the cost basis..”

Hey, just like I do. I don’t really consider myself a trader. I buy silver coins on the dips and/or when I can. That’s the commitment.

The other part of that or “using the technicals to support or improve the cost basis” is a tricky thing to do in the silver market.

Especially, as long as prices are determined by futures or paper silver. That is to say, manipulated or suppressed.

I think the only way to know when it’s really time to sell is when silver shows up on the front page of the Wall Street Journal.

I often feel taken advantage of by the chartists anyway.

Pardon the surf analogy, but it’s somewhat how I think about the surf conditions –Even though the short-term or local conditions matter some, its the long-term ground swell that we wait for.  You know the winter is coming, just now when the good days will actually arrive.

If you have a lot of extra cash, you might be able to use the technicals to leverage money around the mining sector, to support your cost basis. But for guys like me, that is mostly dreaming. I’m just happy my local coin guy is still able to find coins.

Okay. So anyone who invests in silver can attest to volatility.

Therefore, we need a direction, a path, a clear sense of where things are headed, a signal that the seasons are about to change.

Among other things it’s important to look at what the macro is telling you and stick to that direction and try to keep the short-term volatility in perspective.

I think a lot of people sort of wake up to find it warm and sunny and only then realize that it must be summer.

I enjoy learning from David Galland,  guys like him take “the chance” and really look at the long-term picture. Or, unlike many writers, he simply looks at what the policymakers are doing, and acknowledging their power to carry out these policies, and their track records.

Galland puts together a really good, once a week kind of read, an organized look at how the short term relates to the longer view contrarion  point of view.

You can find him over at Casey Research in the free section.

Galland is also an inflationist, which again, for the long-term is always in the cards for a fiat currency and what all central powers do, if they can get away with it – which they probably will for a while.

As I alluded to above, I became a raving fan of Galland is from reading the interview that he did with Neil Howe, author of “The Fourth Turning”.

You can check it out here:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14670.htm

Galland may help you in keeping that needed focus on the broader horizon.

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